The successful Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil terminal in St Petersburg has dramatically illustrated the increasing damage that Ukraine’s air campaign is doing to the Russian economy. Together with the indefinite bloody stalemate on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, this is contributing to increased war weariness in Russia.
For the first time, voices in the Russian establishment have begun to call publicly for an early peace, even at the price of giving up key Russian demands. In the words of Russian commentator Alexander Nosovich in the newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets,
"The expert community is split between those in favour of continuing the special military operation until the goals are achieved, and those who believe it's time to end it, since the worst-case scenario is not even defeat, it's an endless special operation."
But the Trump administration - frustrated by the failure of the peace process to date and utterly distracted by its war with Iran - appears to be walking away from talks on Ukraine. This creates an opportunity for the European Union to play a key role - something that the Europeans have been demanding ever since Trump initiated the peace process in 2025. This and the appointment of a chief negotiator are now being discussed in European official circles and the media; but so far, with nothing like the urgency that the case requires.
For growing Russian frustration with the war points in two possible directions. A majority of the population seems inclined to accept a peace settlement with a ceasefire along the present battle-line; but a hardline minority wishes to escalate radically against Europe, in an effort to drag the U.S. back into talks and terrify the Europeans into accepting peace on Russian terms.
For Europe to play a useful role in ending the war, it must bring forward concrete incentives to Putin. European offers in the areas of sanctions relief and the normalisation of relations could play a vital role in this regard. A limited resumption of energy purchases would be both in the interests of Europe, and of great interest to the Russians, who are becoming increasingly worried by their dependence on China and frustrated with China’s determination to drive the hardest possible bargains over their energy purchases and investments.
So far however it is not clear that European establishments are thinking of a peace settlement. Instead, the talk is still of pressuring Russia to an unconditional ceasefire before concrete negotiations on a long-term settlement even begin. Moscow has categorically rejected this demand. If it sticks to this refusal, then the war will indeed go on indefinitely; and Kyiv and European capitals may be content with this, given the increasing talk among Western and Ukrainian officials and commentators of how Ukraine has “turned the tide” on the battlefield.
This analysis is however profoundly mistaken. Exactly the same factors - above all drones - that have blocked any large-scale Russian advance will do the same to any Ukrainian attempt to roll back the Russian forces. And while Russia is suffering badly in this war of attrition, Ukraine has also suffered heavy casualties from a much smaller population.
Finally, while a ceasefire without a settlement looks like the domestically easy option for the Ukrainian and European governments, an indefinite semi-frozen conflict would not in fact be in their countries’ interests; for it would risk a situation like that in Kashmir, with repeated clashes and the permanent possibility of a return to full-scale war.
For Ukraine, this would create a huge barrier to economic reconstruction. For Europe, it would mean permanent militarisation, and the diversion to the military of money and attention that are needed for urgent domestic problems. Fear of Russia would also ensure that the Europeans will constantly be tempted to run back to Washington for protection - and will therefore be incapable of breaking with the disastrous U.S. and Israeli actions in the Middle East that are threatening the domestic peace of European societies.
For the sake of the European continent, we need to end this war, not put it in the fridge and then spend generations waiting nervously for the power to fail.